The Adolescence of Technology: AI Prediction Analysis (Dario Amodei)

Описание: Anthropic's CEO, who has consistently predicted transformative AI will arrive before 2030, recently published a nearly 20,000-word essay outlining his vision of where AI is heading. The video gives you the highlights. The essay argues that scaling and recursion will advance AI from coding automation to full engineering automation, while warning of economic displacement within 1-2 years and China's trajectory toward AI-enabled totalitarianism. Additionally, Dario Amodei predicts that AI models will increasingly be understood as collections of distinct personas rather than monolithic systems.

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Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:10 - Scaling to software engineers
06:11 - Permanent Underclass
10:18 - Totalitarian Nightmares
16:38 - Collection of Personas

Essay: https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the...

Physics Prediction: https://www.quantamagazine.org/is-par...

Axios: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-j...

World GDP: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/...

Demis Hassabis Counter:    • The Man Behind Google's AI Machine | Demis...  

Karpathy 80%: https://x.com/karpathy/status/2015883...

Machines of Loving Grace: https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/mac...

Anthropic LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5aKRs...

Original Constitution: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude...

New Constitution: https://www.anthropic.com/constitution

Kimi K2.5: https://x.com/Kimi_Moonshot/status/20...

Societies of Thought, Google DeepMind Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.10825

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