Iran’s Power Structure Under Strain

Описание: Iran's ongoing protests represent the most significant challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding, surpassing previous waves of unrest in scale and breadth, according to Dr. Kamran Bokhari, a senior geopolitical analyst. The protests, he said, reflect both economic grievances and widespread political frustration, fueled by public disillusionment following Iran’s regional setbacks, including the collapse of its proxy networks and vulnerabilities exposed during the June 2025 conflict with Israel. The regime's perceived resilience has eroded, Bokhari said. The weakening of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and divisions among Iran’s elite, he said, have undermined the regime’s ability to control unrest, shifting influence toward the regular armed forces, which are more professional and less ideologically aligned with the Republic.

Externally, Bokhari observed caution from the United States and Israel, with no illusions of engineering regime change in such a vast and complex nation, though Washington appears to maintain channels with Tehran while declining meetings with exiled royal heir Reza Pahlavi. Regionally, instability risks spillover, particularly for neighbors like Pakistan, where shared borders with Iran's restive Sistan and Baluchestan province could exacerbate insurgencies, refugee flows, and sectarian tensions, while Iraq and Yemen face potential power vacuums if Iranian influence wanes further. He suggested that the regime is not monolithic and faces internal paralysis, making coordinated responses difficult. Bokhari cautioned that while the protests may subside temporarily, underlying weaknesses suggest systemic decay, with possible pathways including military intervention and a reconfiguration of Iran’s leadership to preserve the state through targeted reforms rather than outright collapse.