75% of SaaS Companies Will Disappear ft. Brett Queener (Bonfire Ventures)

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18 months ago, venture capitalist Brett Queener made a bold prediction: 75% of customer-facing software companies would disappear. Now he’s back—with receipts.

On this episode of Unchurned, Brett explains why traditional SaaS moats have collapsed, why “system of record” is no longer defensible, and why we’ve entered a new era of agentic software—where you don’t buy tools anymore… You hire them.

Brett introduces what he calls the Judgment Layer—the only remaining defensible advantage in AI-powered products. In a world where agents can build, code, write, and self-organize, your job shifts from operator to manager. And your product’s job shifts from workflow engine to embedded judgment engine.

If you build, invest in, or buy software, this episode is required listening.


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Timestamps
0:00 - Preview & Introduction
2:15 - From GPT moment to Agents
4:02 - Survival in the AI era
6:50 - Meet Brett
8:00 - Why SaaS moats disappeared
10:40 - The Judgment Layer explained & Feedback loops
13:58 - Hiring software vs. buying software

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What You’ll Learn
Why most SaaS companies are now replaceable
Why embedded judgment is more valuable than workflow automation
The new decision framework for buy vs. build
Why the humanities may outperform pure STEM in the AI era
What founders must build to remain defensible

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Where to Find Brett Queener
LinkedIn:   / brettqueener  
Substack Article: https://queener.substack.com/p/in-the...
Bonfire Ventures: https://www.bonfirevc.com/

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Where to Find Josh:
LinkedIn:   / jschachter  
Unchurned Substack: https://unchurned.substack.com/