Sarah Paine: How Putin is Destroying Russia as Great Power

Описание: Great powers rarely fall in a single blow. They weaken when one strategic gamble closes more doors than it opens. That is the story here.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was intended to restore Russia’s stature. Instead, it has accelerated its loss of great-power autonomy. Sanctions, technological isolation, capital flight, and demographic decline have compounded long-standing structural weaknesses. The war did not create Russia’s fragility — it exposed and intensified it.

The most consequential shift has been eastward.

Before 2022, Moscow could hedge between Europe and China. That flexibility is largely gone. Beijing is now Russia’s primary economic outlet, technological supplier, and diplomatic shield. This is not parity; it is asymmetry. China has options. Russia increasingly does not.

That loss of optionality is the real decline. Great powers retain freedom of manoeuvre. They choose their alignments; they are not compelled into them. By overplaying his hand, Putin narrowed Russia’s strategic space and locked it into a position of dependence.

The concept of “death ground” sharpens the point. When leaders perceive existential stakes, escalation becomes easier than retreat. But operating from that mindset reduces flexibility further. It hardens positions and raises the cost of correction.

Russia still possesses nuclear weapons and a UN Security Council seat — the symbols of great-power status. Yet symbol and substance are diverging. Economic dependence on China, constrained policy space, and mounting internal strain point to a quieter reality: a state that looks powerful, but negotiates from weakness.

Putin set out to restore Russian greatness. His pivotal error may instead mark the moment Russia’s great-power status began to erode in substance, even if it remains intact in form.

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Chapters

00:00 The Historical Context of Russian-Chinese Relations
02:13 Strategic Dependence vs. Vulnerability
03:43 Desperation and the Concept of Death Ground

#russia #putin #strategy #internationalrelations #geopolitics #power #china