Morning Market Brief | Feb 5, 2026 | Alphabet Eyes Massive $185B AI CapEx

Описание: Corporate Earnings & Technology
• Alphabet (Google) Earnings: Alphabet reported Q4 revenue of $113.83 billion, beating estimates of $111.4 billion. However, the company announced a massive capital expenditure (CapEx) forecast for 2026 of 175–185 billion, significantly higher than the Street's estimate of ~$119.5 billion. This high spending is driven by AI infrastructure and data centers, though Google Cloud revenue grew 48%.
• Tech Sell-Off & Rotation: Markets are experiencing a rotation out of tech stocks and into value sectors like energy and materials. Software stocks have been particularly hit due to fears that new AI tools (such as those from Anthropic) will disrupt their business models.
• Chipmakers: Qualcomm beat earnings estimates but provided a weak outlook for the next quarter, citing headwinds from a memory chip shortage in the smartphone market. Arm Holdings also saw shares drop despite beating revenue estimates, as investors had higher expectations for their guidance.
• Pharma Divergence: Eli Lilly shares soared after providing an upbeat sales forecast for 2026, driven by growth in anti-obesity drugs. Conversely, Novo Nordisk shares fell after warning that sales would drop due to intensifying price wars and lower realized prices in the US market, though they hope volume will compensate.
Geopolitics & International Relations
• Trump-Xi Call: President Trump held a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, discussing trade, Taiwan, and Ukraine. Trump announced that President Xi is expected to visit the White House later this year.
• Xi-Putin Call: Prior to speaking with Trump, President Xi held a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, reaffirming strong ties between the two nations.
• US-Iran Tensions: Tensions remain high as the US has deployed a carrier strike group to the region. Diplomatic talks are tentatively planned, potentially in Oman, but there are disagreements over the scope; Iran wants to limit talks to nuclear issues, while the US wants to include ballistic missiles and regional proxies. Trump warned Iran's leader to be "very worried".
• Critical Minerals Summit: The Trump administration hosted a summit with over 50 countries to establish agreements on critical minerals and reduce reliance on China, including discussions on price floors.
US Politics & Economy
• Minneapolis ICE Withdrawal: The Department of Homeland Security announced it is withdrawing 700 ICE agents from Minneapolis following the fatal shooting of two US citizens by agents. There is an ongoing political debate regarding the use of body cameras and whether agents should be allowed to wear masks.
• Federal Reserve: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Although Warsh has a history of being hawkish, Trump stated he expects interest rates to be lowered. Analysts note Warsh may have shifted his stance to align with the President's low-rate preference.
• Supreme Court Ruling: The US Supreme Court allowed California to use a new congressional map for the upcoming midterm elections, which may favor Democrats.
Crypto & Commodities
• Bitcoin Crash: Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its October highs, trading around the 73,000–74,000 level. The decline is attributed to a "sell the news" reaction after the election, regulatory uncertainty, and a rotation into other assets.
• Banking vs. Crypto: There is a legislative battle between the banking lobby and crypto exchanges. Banks are pushing to ban yield rewards on stablecoins, while crypto companies like Coinbase want to maintain them.
• Precious Metals: Gold and silver have seen volatility, with gold dipping below $5,000 before bouncing back. Some analysts suggest crypto's fall is dragging down precious metals due to de-leveraging.