Ceasefire and Strategy: Thailand, Cambodia, and Great-Power Competition in Southeast Asia

Описание: As regional leaders wrapped up the annual ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, and Thailand and Cambodia formalized an expanded ceasefire agreement—signed during a ceremony attended by President Trump on October 26—questions about regional security and great-power competition were once again at the forefront. Beijing’s recent offer to mediate the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, analyzed by Pongphisoot Busbarat in his commentary, sheds new light on China’s evolving role as a security actor in Southeast Asia.

What does China’s mediation effort reveal about its strategic ambitions in mainland Southeast Asia? How are Thailand and Cambodia responding to this shifting landscape even as they grapple with bilateral border tensions? And how might the outcomes of the Xi-Trump meeting and the ASEAN summit influence the region’s security architecture?

Join Elina Noor, a senior fellow in the Asia Program at Carnegie, as she moderates a timely conversation with Pongphisoot Busbarat, nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, and Chhengpor Aun, fellowship program manager at Future Forum, to explore these developments and their implications for Southeast Asia’s regional order.

0:27 The Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord
2:29 China’s role in Thailand-Cambodia peace negotiations
11:32 Cambodia prefers to internationalize the conflict
21:36 Thailand prefers a bilateral mechanism for conflict resolution
25:37 Is Cambodia moving away from China?
30:55 Could ASEAN have singlehandedly broken the deal between Thailand and Cambodia?
33:24 Did the US shorten the negotiation process between Thailand and Cambodia?
37:25 What would it mean for ASEAN if it continues to rely on external parties?
48:16 Red lines for Thailand and for Cambodia
52:23 The future strategic posture for mainland Southeast Asia

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