WARNING: COMEX March Default Risk? Silver Inventories Plunge – Shanghai Depleted!

Описание: The Truth About Silver Inventories and Whether China Will Default First
   • The Truth About Silver Inventories and Whe...  

Eligible Inventory (meets quality standards but not yet registered for delivery): 278.07 million ounces.

Eligible silver is held in approved depositories (vaults) across the US, primarily in New York.

uly 2025 assumptions: Spot ~$40/oz, contract value = 5,000 oz * $40 = $200,000. Margins were fixed-dollar pre-January 2026 shift (legacy system: ~$15,000-20,000 per contract; average ~$18,000 based on historical CME data for similar volatility/price levels in 2025). Effective margin % = $18,000 / $200,000 = 9%. Total margin for 163,567 contracts = 163,567 * $18,000 = ~$2,944,206,000.
Current (Feb 21, 2026) assumptions: Spot ~$84/oz (March futures ~$84.57), contract value = 5,000 * $84 = $420,000. Margins shifted to percentage-based in January 2026, hiked 3-4 times (9% Jan 13 → 11% Jan 27 → 15% Jan 31 → 18% Feb 6). Current: 18% standard (non-heightened risk). Margin per contract = 18% * $420,000 = $75,600.
Adjusted contracts today: For the same $2,944,206,000 margin capital, number of contracts = $2,944,206,000 / $75,600 ≈ 38,944 contracts.

















































Depository/HolderApproximate Eligible Silver (million oz)NotesJPMorgan Chase~120-130Largest holder; also active in issuing delivery notices (e.g., 99% of January deliveries).HSBC~60-70Major bank vault; significant in global metals storage.Scotia Mocatta~30-40Bank-affiliated; holds for clients and trading.Brinks~20-30Security firm vault; handles logistics for multiple parties.CNT Depository~15-20Specialized metals storage.Delaware Depository~10-15Secure vault operator.Malca-Amit~5-10International logistics provider.Others (e.g., Loomis, smaller vaults)~10-20Distributed among minor holders.