Your Company Retirement Plan, Picking Investments

Описание: CPI printed at 2.39% — inside our projected 2.37%–2.90% range — confirming inflation is persistent but not re-accelerating. Yet markets sold off. In this episode of Purpose Driven Finances, Allan Malina of Servus Capital Management explains why liquidity and “negative gamma” drove the volatility — and why the shift from Quad 2 to Quad 3 should influence how you structure your 401(k) or 403(b) in Lynchburg and Central Virginia.




Key Takeaways




• The Math Holds: CPI at 2.39% confirmed disinflation remains intact.




• Mechanics Over Macro: The selloff reflected positioning and negative gamma — not economic collapse.




• The Regime Shift: On February 11th, our models signaled a move from Quad 2 (accelerating growth) to Quad 3 (slowing growth, rising volatility).




• Seasonal Positioning Matters: Retirement allocations should reflect economic seasons.




• Three Paths to Clarity: Simplicity (Target-Date), Structure (Three-Bucket), or Discipline (Regime Alignment).




Distinguishing Signal from Noise




Headlines framed the market move as alarming. The data did not.




On January 17th, we projected CPI between 2.37% and 2.90%. The 2.39% print confirmed the broader disinflation trend. Inflation exists — but it is not accelerating.




So why the volatility?




In a negative-gamma environment, dealers must sell more as prices decline. When JPMorgan issued a hawkish forecast, it collided with thin liquidity and fragile positioning. The result was mechanical selling — a temporary liquidity event, not structural deterioration.




More important was the regime change.




Quad 2 → Quad 3




Quad 2: Growth accelerating; favors pro-cyclical exposure.




Quad 3: Growth slowing; volatility rising; defensive leadership strengthening.




For professionals in Lynchburg, Forest, and Bedford, your largest exposure to this shift is likely inside your company retirement plan — 401(k), 403(b), or 457.




This episode outlines three ways to align your allocation with the current season:




1. Target-Date Path




Maximum simplicity. Broad diversification. Built for averages.




2. Three-Bucket Path




Intentional weighting across U.S. equities, international equities, and bonds.




3. Disciplined Regime Path




Quarterly alignment based on quantitative data — tilting toward growth or defense as economic conditions evolve.




Stewardship is not about prediction. It is about positioning.










Frequently Asked Questions




If inflation was “on target,” why did my account drop?




Markets are influenced by liquidity and leverage. In negative gamma, volatility amplifies. The selloff reflected positioning pressure, not a collapse in fundamentals.




What does Quad 3 mean for my 401(k)?




Quad 3 historically favors balance sheet strength and defensive posture. That may mean reducing aggressive, high-beta growth exposure and emphasizing stable core allocations.




How often should I change my retirement investments?




Not frequently. We recommend a deep annual review and quarterly check-ins during regime shifts. Discipline, not reaction.




Is the SCM Retirement Plan Update really free?




Yes. As a fiduciary firm serving Central Virginia, we provide quarterly retirement plan guidance for local employer plans — including Centra, Liberty, and BWXT — to bring clarity before commitment.




Allan Malina is the founder of Servus Capital Management, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor based in Forest, Virginia, serving Lynchburg, Bedford, and Central Virginia. Through a macro-aware, quantitative framework, he helps families and mission-aligned organizations move beyond market noise toward disciplined, long-term stewardship. Allan hosts Purpose Driven Finances and the weekly radio show on WLNI 105.9.




Aired: February 14, 2026