12-WEEK SILVER WAIT TIME: Spot Says $90 But Immediate Delivery Costs $110 (22% Time Premium)

Описание: 12-WEEK SILVER WAIT TIME: Spot Says $90 But Immediate Delivery Costs $110 (22% Time Premium)


Physical silver delivery times just hit twelve weeks. If you place a spot order with major refiners today, you won't receive the metal for three months. That's triple the normal lead time of 2-4 weeks. And it's not improving—it's getting worse. This video breaks down what the 12-week backlog reveals about physical silver supply constraints and why the paper market and physical market are now operating on completely different timelines. 🔍 WHAT'S COVERED: *THE DELIVERY TIME EXTENSION* • Normal delivery: 2-4 weeks historically • Mid-2025: Extended to 6-8 weeks • Late 2025: Hit 10-12 weeks • Early 2026: 12 weeks now standard across major refiners • Trend: Getting longer, not shorter *WHY REFINERS ARE BACKLOGGED* • Demand surge: Industrial stockpiling (18-month inventory) + investment flows • Capacity frozen: Building new refineries takes 3-5 years—no quick expansion possible • Forward contracts: Refiners prioritizing long-term agreements over spot orders • Customer hierarchy: Long-term clients first, new spot buyers to back of queue *THE TWO-TIER PRICING STRUCTURE* • Spot price with 12-week wait: $90/oz • Immediate delivery from dealer inventory: $110/oz • Time premium: $20/oz (22% over spot) • Time risk: Prices could move $20+ during 3-month wait period • Choice: Accept 12-week delay OR pay 22% premium for immediacy *IMPACT ON DIFFERENT BUYERS* • Industrial users: Can't wait—pay premiums or stockpile months ahead • Dealers: Must hold larger inventories, charge 15-25% premiums (up from 3-5%) • Investors: Long-term holders wait, short-term traders face impossible timing • New buyers: Back of queue—longest wait times, least priority *WHY REFINERS DON'T JUST RAISE PRICES* • Thin margins: Refiners charge $1-3/oz fees—metal trades at COMEX spot • Price takers: Can't unilaterally raise prices far above spot without losing business • Non-price rationing: Extended delivery times naturally reduce demand without price increases • Competitive pressure: If one refiner charges too much, buyers go to competitors *PAPER VS PHYSICAL DIVERGENCE* • Paper market: Instant execution, real-time pricing, high liquidity • Physical market: 12-week lag between order and delivery • Time disconnect: Paper price immediate, physical delivery delayed 3 months • Premium for immediacy: Market paying 22% just to skip the queue • What it reveals: Physical supply much tighter than spot price suggests *THE MONITORING FRAMEWORK* Three critical indicators to watch: 1. Refiner delivery times: 6-8 weeks = improving / 14-16 weeks = deteriorating 2. Dealer premiums: $20+ = scarcity persists / $5 = supply normalizing 3. Order cancellation rates: Rising cancellations = buyers losing confidence in time-delayed model *SKEPTICAL VIEW ADDRESSED* "This is temporary—refiners will catch up" • Rebuttal: Capacity takes years to build (2027-2028 at earliest) • Forward contracts lock up capacity months/years ahead • Industrial stockpiling is structural, not cyclical—demand won't drop • 12-week backlog more likely to persist or worsen than improve *CONNECTION TO BROADER PATTERN* Fits with other documented stress signals: • Industrial stockpiling: 18-month inventory (vs 2-3 month historical) • COMEX fractional reserve: 15:1 paper-to-physical ratio • Miner hedging collapse: 28% → 4% (miners refusing to lock prices) • Jewelry demand down 40%: But prices stable (marginal buyer changed) • Refinery utilization: 60% (despite demand surge—feedstock constrained) *WHAT 12-WEEK DELIVERY TIMES REVEAL* • Real supply constraint: Refiners maxed out at 24/7 capacity—still can't meet demand • Time premium emergence: Buyers paying 22% just for immediacy • Forward-looking fear: Market believes conditions will worsen in 3 months • System under stress: Non-price rationing mechanism in full effect • Physical decoupling: Spot price ($90) vs real acquisition cost ($110)