COMEX REGISTERED SILVER DOWN 43%: Fractional Reserve Now 15 Claims Per Ounce

Описание: COMEX REGISTERED SILVER DOWN 43%: Fractional Reserve Now 15 Claims Per Ounce

The COMEX fractional reserve ratio just hit 15:1. That's fifteen paper claims for every ounce of physical silver in the registered vaults. Open interest: 600 million ounces. Registered inventory: 40 million ounces. The gap is widening. In this analysis, I break down what the 15:1 ratio means, why it's expanding (8:1 in 2023 → 12:1 in 2024 → 15:1 in 2025), what happens if delivery requests spike from 3% to 10%, and why the eligible silver (200M ounces) is staying locked instead of supporting the system. 📊 KEY DATA POINTS: • Current ratio: 15:1 (fifteen paper claims per physical ounce) • Historical normal: 3:1 to 4:1 • Open interest: 600 million ounces (up 33% in 2 years) • Registered inventory: 40 million ounces (down 43% in 3 years) • Eligible inventory: 200 million ounces (locked, not transferring) • Eligible/Registered ratio: 5:1 (historical: 2-3:1) • Normal delivery rate: 2-3% of open interest • Breaking point: 10% delivery rate = 60M oz demand vs 40M oz supply 📈 WHAT THIS REVEALS: Two forces working simultaneously: more paper claims being created through rising open interest, less physical backing available as registered inventory drains. The numerator is rising. The denominator is falling. The ratio expands. At 15:1, the system has minimal buffer. A modest increase in delivery requests creates a crisis. The fractional reserve structure is functioning, but it's stressed. And the trajectory suggests it's heading toward 20:1 or higher. 🎯 MONITORING FRAMEWORK: I'm watching six indicators to assess whether stress is increasing or stabilizing: 1. Ratio trend (compressing or expanding?) 2. Delivery requests as % of open interest 3. Physical premium trends (elevated = decoupling) 4. Eligible → Registered transfers (confidence signal) 5. Exchange interventions (margin hikes, restrictions) 6. Registered inventory direction (stabilizing or still falling?) Current assessment: None of these indicators are improving. The trajectory is negative. ⚠️ THE MUSICAL CHAIRS PROBLEM: Fifteen people. One chair. Music is still playing. No one is worried yet. But when the music stops, fourteen will be standing. They'll realize they don't have what they thought they had. That's the COMEX right now. Fifteen contracts. One ounce. And the music is still playing. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This content is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. I document observable market mechanics and institutional positioning. What you interpret or do with that information is your decision.