Budget Speech 2026 | What’s at stake? | Investec

Описание: South Africa’s 2026 Budget arrives at a pivotal moment.

Debt is hovering near 78% of GDP. Growth is forecast at just 1.5%. Debt-servicing costs absorb around 5% of GDP. And yet, bond yields have fallen, sentiment has improved and S&P maintains a positive outlook.

Is this genuine fiscal stabilisation or simply a window of opportunity?

In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs sits down with Investec’s Chief Economist Annabel Bishop and Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs to unpack:

Whether debt has truly peaked
How meaningful the commodity revenue windfall is
The risk of further “stealth” tax pressure on households
Municipal reform and infrastructure momentum
What it would take to secure a credit-rating upgrade

Key moments:

00:00 – Introduction

01:45 – Is this the beginning of stabilisation?

03:14 - Is growth now the binding constraint on fiscal consolidation?

05:31 - What are the numbers that matter most in this Budget?

07:54 - How material could the revenue windfall be?

09:45 - How could Treasury best use this windfall?

10:40 – Has fiscal slippage become the default trend?

13:50 - What would this Budget need to demonstrate to strengthen the case for an upgrade?

16:17 - Can households absorb further stealth tax increases?

18:02 - How important is progress at the municipal level?

19:52 - How exposed is the fiscal framework to renewed wage pressures?

22:31 - What is the single most important signal this Budget must send?

For more, visit: https://link.investec.com/2y4v4m