Will Trump's Iran sanctions actually work this time? Analysis

Описание: Mark Pfeifle, a former US national security advisor and president of Off the Record Strategies, joins Al Jazeera from Washington, DC, to assess Trump's threat of "total economic warfare" against Iran. He says the real test is China, which has cut its Iranian oil imports from roughly 1.5 million to 500,000 barrels a day since the war began, diversifying toward Brazil, Iraq and Russia, though it's unclear if that shift will last. Trump has sanctioned 60 entities but not yet banks.

Pfeifle warns that success requires tracking money as quickly as Iran and China move it through crypto, shell companies, and shadow banks, since sanctioning one channel just pushes funds elsewhere. Directly sanctioning Chinese institutions could further pressure Beijing, but Washington is reluctant, given intertwined trade ties and a Trump-Xi summit next month. He says China is playing a long game, content to see the US tied down in the Middle East while buying discounted Iranian oil.

Pfeifle argues real pressure requires a coordinated, whole-of-government effort, not scattered sanctions and social media posts, warning that none of it matters if Iran keeps its uranium and keeps funding missiles and proxies.

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