直播伊朗人民大起义 1｜未来中国活教材｜Live Broadcast of the Great Uprising of the Iranian People 1

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直播伊朗人民大起义 1｜未来中国活教材｜Live Broadcast of the Great Uprising of the Iranian People 1 | A Living Textbook for the Future of China
朋友们大家好，欢迎在这个周末来到老杜的节目。几天以来，老杜一直高度关注伊朗局势，今天早上起来我，我相继阅读了法国世界报、法国国籍广播电台、英国卫报、布鲁塞尔时报、纽约时报、美联社等国际主流新闻媒体的最新报道。我也登陆了人权观察、前线卫视、大赦国际等国际人权组织网站，因为伊朗已经全面断网超过36小时，在这个与世隔绝的国度，数以千万计的伊朗人民走上街头彻夜抗议，伊朗军队荷枪实弹准备镇压，不断传来抗议者被射杀的消息。至今已经有超过50名伊朗人被镇压射杀，其中包括9名儿童。哈梅内伊和伊朗司法部长都表示要强力镇压抗议者，并宣称不惧美国威胁，已经做好战争准备。伊斯兰革命卫队更是对所有抗议者发出死亡屠杀警告。英国法国德国三国领导人发表联合声明呼吁伊朗当局克制。还有大约2272名抗议者被捕。互联网上盛传哈梅内伊已经被抗议者打死，也有未经证实的网络传闻说伊朗军队正在各地大规模屠杀抗议平民。前述这些大媒体和活跃的人权机构在伊朗有办事机构，他们有海事卫星电话，有卫星直播设备，目前伊朗前线的消息只能依靠他们。伊朗何去何从？伊朗的明天会怎么样？是在大规模屠杀？还是美国会突然轰炸伊朗，甚至派出特种部队直取哈梅内伊将其逮捕归案？一切都在瞬息万变之中。还是老杜今天的这期节目，我想请大家先放下一个习惯——不要把伊朗正在发生的事情，当成一条“中东新闻”，也不要当成一次“周期性动荡”。如果你真的顺着时间线、顺着结构、顺着政权的反应方式去看，你会发现一句话：伊朗，正在进入一场人民起义的不可逆阶段。而更重要的是，这场起义，对中国社会、对中国统治逻辑、对中国未来，有着极其现实、极其刺眼的启示意义。
这一轮抗议，确实是从经济崩溃开始的。货币突然贬值，通胀失控，生活成本暴涨，普通家庭一夜之间发现自己辛苦多年积累的财富变成废纸。但如果你认为伊朗人民是因为“穷”才上街的，那你就完全低估了这场运动的深度。真正让局势发生质变的，不是贫穷，而是绝望。当一个社会发现，经济困境不是暂时的，而是结构性的；不是政策失误，而是体制必然；不是可以纠正的，而是被禁止讨论的——那么问题就会从“我要活得好一点”，迅速转向“这个东西还能不能存在”。
正是在这个节点上，伊朗街头开始出现一个极其危险、也极其清晰的信号：抗议口号不再指向官员、不再指向部门，而是直接指向最高统治者——阿里·哈梅内伊。当“哈梅内伊去死”这种口号，在德黑兰、在马什哈德、在库姆这样的政治与宗教象征城市被公开、高频、大规模喊出时，这已经不再是抗议，而是对统治合法性的公开处决。一个政权最致命的时刻，从来不是被批评，而是被否定存在本身。现在伊朗人民正在全国性高喊这样的口号。我相信不久的将来，人们在中国的大街小巷会出现打到习近平、打到共产党的口号。
Hello friends, welcome to Lao Du’s program this weekend. Over the past few days, Lao Du has been closely following the situation in Iran. This morning, I read the latest reports from major international media, including Le Monde, Radio France Internationale, The Guardian, The Brussels Times, The New York Times, and the Associated Press. I also visited the websites of international human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Frontline Defenders, and Amnesty International.

Iran has been completely cut off from the internet for more than 36 hours. In this isolated country, tens of millions of Iranians have taken to the streets in overnight protests. The Iranian military, armed with live ammunition, is prepared to suppress them. Reports continue to emerge of protesters being shot dead. So far, more than 50 Iranians have been killed by the crackdown, including 9 children.

Khamenei and the head of Iran’s judiciary have both declared their intent to crack down forcefully on protesters, stating that they do not fear U.S. threats and are ready for war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has even issued death threats to all protesters. The leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany issued a joint statement calling on the Iranian authorities to exercise restraint. Around 2,272 protesters have been arrested.

There are widespread rumors on the internet that Khamenei has been killed by protesters, and there are also unverified reports of the Iranian military carrying out mass killings of civilian protesters across the country. The aforementioned major media outlets and active human rights organizations have offices in Iran. They possess maritime satellite phones and satellite broadcast equipment. At present, frontline information from Iran can only be accessed through them.

Where is Iran headed? What will tomorrow bring for Iran? Will there be a large-scale massacre? Will the United States suddenly bomb Iran or even dispatch special forces to capture Khamenei and bring him to justice? Everything is changing by the minute.

In today’s episode, I’d like to invite everyone to first let go of a certain mindset—don’t treat what is happening in Iran as just another “Middle East news story,” and don’t dismiss it as a “cyclical unrest.” If you truly follow the timeline, the structure, and the regime’s response pattern, you will see one thing: Iran is entering an irreversible stage of popular uprising.

And more importantly, this uprising has a stark and extremely relevant warning for Chinese society, for the logic of Chinese rule, and for China’s future.

This round of protests did indeed start with economic collapse—sudden currency devaluation, uncontrollable inflation, and a skyrocketing cost of living. Overnight, ordinary families found that the wealth they had worked hard to accumulate over many years had turned into worthless paper. But if you think the Iranian people took to the streets just because they are “poor,” then you are completely underestimating the depth of this movement.

What truly caused a qualitative shift in the situation was not poverty, but despair. When a society realizes that its economic difficulties are not temporary but structural; not due to policy mistakes, but due to the system itself; not correctable, but forbidden to even be discussed—then the question quickly shifts from “how can I live better” to “can this thing even continue to exist?”