3 great questions from Globe N.H.s Reddit AMA - The Boston Globe

Описание: 3 great questions from Globe N.H.'s Reddit AMA - The Boston Globe
Here are three of my favorite questions and my answers, lightly edited for clarity, length, and style:

1. Do you feel the strategy of having Democratic voters switch their party affiliation to participate in the Republican primary will lead to a competitive Republican primary rather than "a coronation for former president Donald J. Trump"?

No. Fewer than 4,000 voters in New Hampshire dropped their Democratic affiliation by the deadline (which was last Friday). That's less than 2 percent of the state's electorate. At this moment, Trump appears to hold a 30-point lead among likely GOP primary voters. So a bunch of former Democrats and undeclared voters could rally behind a non-Trump candidate. But I don't think the party-switching strategy on its own generated a big enough shift to deprive Trump of a win in New Hampshire.

2. How much do the voters on the ground care about New Hampshire's place as "first-in-the-nation"? Is the defense of this law largely coming from policy makers who want to increase New Hampshire's importance on the national stage, or directly from the citizenry?

The first-in-the-nation primary is clearly a benefit to New Hampshire politicos. But do voters care? Less than one in four likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire have attended an in-person event with any candidate so far this cycle (per a poll from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and USA TODAY). The pollster told me he figures that number will break 40 percent by January. But that would mean a majority of likely GOP primary voters will head to the polls in New Hampshire without having attended an in-person event. Does that mean they don't care? Debatable. Another poll (from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center) found that a majority of Republicans (78 percent) and independents (72 percent) in New Hampshire, but less than half of Democrats (43 percent), support the state law that requires our primary to be first.

3. I'm in a metro area with more people than all of New Hampshire. Why does this teeny tiny state deserve so much attention and engagement when politicians could be working to swing much bigger states like Texas?

New Hampshire has fewer than 1.4 million residents. Texas has more than 20 times that. (The city of San Antonio alone is more populous than the Granite State!) Those who advocate for New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status contend that having a teeny tiny state go first is a good thing: Candidates can visit all 10 of our counties with a relatively short tour, meet voters face-to-face, shake hands, and take voters' questions directly, without needing a huge budget to compete across several media markets at once.

The key word in your question, though, "deserve," is precisely why there has been so much controversy around our century-old tradition. I love that New Hampshire goes first, and I think we should be proud of our tradition, but I have a hard time making the case that we "deserve" it. I think NHPR's "Stranglehold" podcast did a nice job unpacking this in 2019.