Bad News for Gold Holder | Price Decrease | Dollars in Trouble | Pak Iran Trade | Economy Matters

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Gold plunges below Rs500,000 per tola in Pakistan
Analysts link sharp decline in gold prices to US-Iran de-escalation, technical sell-off
Gold prices in Pakistan continued their sharp downward slide on Monday, slipping below the Rs500,000 mark amid a broad correction in both local and international markets.

According to the All Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Association, the price of gold fell by Rs21,500 per tola on the first day of the business week, taking the new rate to Rs490,362 per tola.

Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold dropped by Rs18,433 to Rs420,406 per tola.

Market data showed that gold prices have now fallen by a cumulative Rs82,500 per tola in just three days, reflecting a steep and sudden correction in the domestic bullion market.

On the global front, gold prices fell 6.1% to $4,565.79 per ounce after shedding more than 9% on Friday in its sharpest one-day drop since 1983.

Commenting on the ongoing decline, Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, said the correction in gold — and silver as well — was widely anticipated.

“The correction in gold and silver was expected. In fact, last Thursday I had highlighted that both metals had become highly prone to correction, and the market has now responded accordingly,” he said while speaking to Geo.tv.

Explaining the reasons behind the pullback, Agar said one of the key factors was a shift in expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve leadership.

"The person announced by US President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve is considered less dovish than what the market had anticipated. Investors were expecting someone more aligned with rapid interest-rate cuts, which did not materialise,” he noted.

He said another major factor was the resumption of back-channel negotiations between the United States and Iran.

"These talks have reduced geopolitical anxiety. Earlier, markets were pricing in a high probability of a US strike on Iran. With negotiations resuming, the market sentiment has calmed," he added.

Agar said, however, that apart from political and policy developments, a technical sell-off also played a major role in pushing prices lower.

"Silver had delivered nearly a 40% return in just one month, while gold had already gained around 17% to 18% in a month. Such aggressive rallies naturally invite profit-taking and technical selling," he said.

He further pointed out that global exchanges had also contributed to the correction.

"The Shanghai Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have introduced curbs on trading, limited positions and raised margins to prevent excessive speculation. From a risk management perspective, these measures tend to trigger selling," Agar explained.

According to him, both gold and silver had turned into what traders describe as a "crowded trade".

"When too many investors enter the same trade after massive gains, even small shocks can trigger sharp corrections. Silver, for example, had surged by around 260% to 270% within a year, making it extremely vulnerable to a pullback,” he said.

Despite the sharp fall, Agar stressed that the market had not entered a long-term bearish phase. "This is not a permanent downtrend. Going forward, positions are expected to rebuild gradually," he said.

He maintained a bullish outlook for precious metals over the medium term, projecting that gold could reach between $6,000 and $6,500 per ounce this year, while silver could move towards $200, if not within the current year, then over the coming years.

Ahsan Mehanti, Managing Director and CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, also linked the fall to the de-escalation in the US and Iran and the strengthening US dollar.