Japan Real Estate 2026 Outlook: Nominal Growth vs. Structural Shift

Описание: [Executive Summary]
While Japan's construction investment is projected to reach record highs in 2026, this "growth" is largely driven by cost-push inflation rather than volume. This video analyzes the structural "Hidden Selection" occurring beneath the surface, identifying the divergence between high-value assets (winners) and commoditized projects (losers) in an era of rising interest rates.

【Key Analysis Points】

The Macro Illusion: Analyzing the gap between Nominal Investment (+5.7%) and Real Investment (flat), driven by material and labor costs.

Housing Sector Shift: Why new housing starts are plummeting (-9.8%) while demand shifts to rental and renovation (+8.6%).

Non-Residential Trends: The rise of domestic factory construction (reshoring) versus the slowdown in logistics warehouses due to oversupply risks.

Winning Strategy: Moving from "Volume" to "Value"—focusing on lifecycle management, energy efficiency (GX), and DX to justify rent premiums.

[Timestamps]
00:00 Introduction: The "Hidden Selection"
00:20 The Big Picture: A Market in Transition
00:48 Macro Data: Nominal vs. Real Investment Gap
01:29 Housing Market: The Shift from Ownership to Rental
02:25 Non-Residential: Reshoring Factories vs. Logistics
02:47 Office Sector: Polarization (GX/DX Winners)
03:14 Public Sector: National Resilience Spending
03:38 Macro Context: Adapting to Interest Rates
04:01 Summary: The Winning Strategy for 2025-2026