𝗔𝗯𝗵𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗸 𝗚𝗼𝗲𝗻𝗸𝗮 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝟴𝟵.𝟰𝟬: 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝟴𝟴.𝟴𝟬 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲 | 𝗘𝗧 𝗡𝗼𝘄 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲
Автор: IFA Global
Загружено: 2025-11-22
Просмотров: 1520
Описание:
Rupee finally broke through 88.80, a level that the RBI had been defending vehemently.
88.80 had become a line in the sand and most market participants would have had that as a stop loss in mind. While the breakout is being attributed to lack of developments on the trade deal front or an Indian firm being on the list of sanctioned firms for buying Iranian crude, the real reason seems to be more technical in nature.
The RBI has already expended considerable ammunition defending 88.80. It's short position in forwards including NDF is likely over USD 70bn. RBI would have wanted to keep some ammunition dry to intervene at higher levels rather than go all in at 88.80. It would have seen overall Dollar strength as an opportunity to let the Rupee range shift higher
Going forward we expect the Rupee to settle in a new 88.00-90.00 range over the next few weeks.
Rupee is undervalued to the extent of 2 to 3 percent as per REER. So we should also be prepared for sudden appreciation if flows starts in FII which has been dormant for a long period of time as FII holding is all time low.
#RBI #Rupee #USDINR #GlobalTrade #Geopolitics #Finance #Treasury #riskmanagement #FII #wealthmanagement #Hegding #Forwardbooking
#India #IFAGlobal #etnow
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