US–Israel Plan to Balkanize Iran?

Описание: Political scientist Ayesha Siddiqa said it remains unclear how much damage US and Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, noting that conflicting reports and continued missile launches suggest Tehran still retains a significant arsenal. She described the conflict as a “cat-and-mouse” contest in which Iran disperses military units and relies on decentralized commanders to continue attacks while Washington and Tel Aviv target launchers and infrastructure. Siddiqa said Tehran appears intent on prolonging the conflict to raise the regional cost of war, warning that attacks and instability could spread across the Middle East and place growing pressure on Gulf states that had expected US and Israeli military superiority to quickly weaken Iran.

She said the war has likely strengthened hard-line factions within Iran and could rally public support around the leadership while foreign intervention continues, making political outcomes difficult to predict. Europe remains divided and largely unable to mediate, she added, while Russia and China appear cautious and unwilling to intervene directly despite concerns about expanding US influence near their strategic interests. Siddiqa warned the conflict could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, pushing up global energy prices. Looking ahead, she said the war could leave Iran weakened and economically exhausted, but also risk wider regional fragmentation if internal divisions or external pressures lead to the country breaking apart.