Peter Turchin: Is a Societal Collapse Looming for America?"

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This interview with Peter Turchin explores whether the U.S. could face societal collapse and how his field of cliodynamics—a scientific approach to studying historical cycles—offers insights.

Key points:

Challenge to mainstream history: Traditional historians often argue societies are too unique and unpredictable for scientific study. Turchin disagrees, saying patterns emerge when looking at societies abstractly, much like physics finds general laws despite unique planets.

Cliodynamics defined: It uses mathematical models, large historical datasets, and statistical tools to identify recurring cycles of crisis in complex societies. Unlike historians who generate many competing theories (e.g., 240 explanations for Rome’s fall), cliodynamics tests and eliminates weaker ones using data.

Findings on societal collapse: Large, complex societies regularly enter crisis periods marked by inequality, elite overproduction, political dysfunction, and social unrest. Outcomes range from total collapse to reform, depending on how elites and populations respond.

Application to the U.S.: Turchin predicted in 2010 that the U.S. was heading into instability around 2020, citing inequality, elite competition, and rising debt. Events like January 6, 2021, confirmed his forecast.

Why predictions work: He applies tools from complexity science, originally used in ecology, to model feedback loops in human societies. This allows forecasting of instability cycles that the human brain alone can’t easily trace.