How to Tell a Good Selloff From a Bad One, With Vecchio and Spivak

Описание: Not all selloffs are the same, and Chris Vecchio and Ilya Spivak lay out how to tell them apart. There's the good kind, healthy profit-taking, and the bad kind, panic and forced liquidation. The single cleanest tell: gold. In a normal scare gold rallies as a safe haven, so the fact that gold is selling off too points to the bad kind, contagion. From there they walk the fund manager's checklist: the VIX term structure, vol-of-vol, credit markets, and the quiet stress in European bonds.

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Chapters
00:00 Two kinds of selloff, good and bad
00:27 So what kind is this one?
00:48 Just profit-taking, or a bubble?
01:13 Think like a fund manager, not a trader
01:26 The gold tell, why it's critical
01:36 Gold falling means contagion
01:57 Scare or something bigger?
02:06 The checklist, vol curve and vol-of-vol
02:17 Watching credit, CCC and high-yield
02:42 The dollar and the euro holding up
02:48 France, Moody's and the ECB next week
04:28 European credit quietly melting down

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