BTC Still Targeting $31K and Why I'm Not Buying Yet

Описание: BTC closed lower yesterday at $65,756, dipping below Saturday's $67,300 low but printing a lower wick that suggests a short-term bounce is possible before the next leg down. The bear flag pattern is tightening and getting more vertical, which historically leads to worse outcomes. The next structural target sits around $63,000 near-term, with a longer-term accumulation zone between $31,000 and $39,000 — roughly a 75% drawdown from the all-time high, consistent with previous bear market bottoms in 2018 (-84%) and 2022 (-78%).

ETH is in deep trouble at $1,951, with weekly RSI plunging well below previous bear market readings. I expect ETH to fall to at least $1,000, possibly breaking below the $881 June low. The silver lining? A deeper drawdown sets up a better ROI on the next cycle — even a move back to $6,000 from sub-$1,000 would be a 6-10x. The "sell in May" seasonal pattern adds another bearish layer, with professional desks historically reducing exposure from May through September, especially during bear/bottom years.

Combined stablecoin dominance weekly RSI hit 88.31 — the highest since June 2022 — with all four TBO cloud lines pointing up. There's a parabolic RSI trendline forming: when it breaks, that historically marks market bottoms. We're not there yet.

BTC dominance and OTHERS dominance continue to show ALTs bleeding against BTC, with TOTALE100 dominance confirming that smaller caps are getting destroyed.

In TradFi, S&P 500 is holding but FANG has three consecutive TBO Breakdowns. NVIDIA is in tight cloud compression — could break either way. Tesla pierced overhead resistance with a $495 target if it holds 3 days. GameStop still looks interesting. Nikkei is struggling.

Gold wicked into the 0.618 fib at $5,109 — still massively bullish. Silver and Uranium continue their strong runs.

ASTER broke above its cloud with a TBO Breakout targeting $0.80. Rain confirmed a daily breakout with solid volume. UNI pumped 40% then dumped — textbook bear market action. JASMY, S, STABLE, HYPE, TAO, Night, QNT, LIT, JUP, RIVER, H, SKY, MYX, CC, PUMP, AERO, PIPPIN and ZRO were all covered with mixed signals but the overwhelming theme remains bearish.