Wall Street forecasts 'normal' year for stocks in 2025 after historic rally

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After two years of annual gains north of 20% for the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Wall Street strategists think 2025 will see a more measured year for stocks.

On Monday, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski initiated a 2025 year-end target of 6,700 for the S&P 500. On Sunday, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson issued a 12-month target of 6,500 for the S&P 500.

Belski's target reflects about 14% upside from Friday's close; the strategist already has a 6,100 year-end target for 2024. This puts Belski's forecast for returns in 2025 at 9.8%, right in line with the index's average historical gain. Wilson's 12-month target represents a nearly 11% increase for the benchmark index over the next year.

Should the S&P 500 finish 2024 with a gain above 20%, it would mark the first time the benchmark index has posted consecutive years with gains of 20% or more since the tech bubble of 1998-1999.

Any way you slice it, then, these outlooks say the outsized returns the S&P 500 has enjoyed for each of the past two years will come to an end in 2025.

"It is clearly time for markets to take a somewhat of a breather," Belski wrote.

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