Dawn or Doom: The effects of Brexit on immigration, wages, and employment

Описание: A panel discussion with economist Jonathan Portes (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Conservative politician Geoffrey Van Orden (Member of the European Parliament), Professor L. Alan Winters (Sussex University and IZA), Allie Renison (Head of Europe and Trade Policy at the Institute of Directors), and moderated by Economist journalist Philip Coggan.
When it comes to evaluating the repercussions of Britain leaving the EU, claims are being made with vehemence; some are calling it “disastrous,” whilst others state that it will result in a “booming Britain.” But, as so often the case, the answer is neither black nor white, and the issues are far more complex. To help demystify the implications of Brexit, particularly from a labor market perspective, IZA World of Labor brought together economic experts to discuss the issues.

00:17 Nigel Newton, Bloomsbury Publishing – Welcome
04:37 Olga Nottmeyer, Managing Editor, IZA World of Labor (wol.iza.org)
07:27 Phil Coggan, Introduction
07:49 PC Q – What the Economic impact of a “Leave” vote would be, and whether it would be more significant in the short term or long term?
19:55 PC Q to GvO – What’s your political view on it – the pro EEA side of Parliament would probably have a majority so you might have Michael Gove or Boris Johnson as Prime Minister but would they be able to push through necessarily in Parliament, a complete exit from all trading arrangements through the SNP, the Labour Party and the others that might vote them down?
23:41 PC to JP – I think I’m right [that] we have this deficit in goods but in services, it’s a different matter, in services the WTO rules wouldn’t be so helpful
24:52 PC to AW – Let’s assume that all three of you roughly think this is right, that we end up with a non-EEA arrangement, so not in the single market, not freedom of movement therefore, what would be the impact on the labor market – Alan what would be the impact in terms of wages, employment, and so on?
26:17 PC to JP – Jonathan I’m sure this a very sophisticated audience, but can you answer the same question, might you just go through the lump of labor fallacy just in case there’s anybody here who hasn’t quite got that?
29:38 PC to GvO – Geoffrey, what’s your view on what it will do to the labor market we have?
32:53 PC to AW – Do you think it’s a problem, Alan I know my doctor’s from Egypt and the GP is from Germany, and my mum when she was in a nursing home was cared for by people from the Philippines and Bulgaria, so is immigration a problem or do immigrants actually work and support public services as well as form a drain on them as [is] some people[’s] view?
36:53 PC to JP – In the, let’s imagine that Brexit win, the Gove/Johnson’s sweep away regulations, as they want to, whichever one of them is Prime Minister – what would labor market regulations Jonathan do you think be a significant part of the regulations that they want to see swept away – is Britain a particularly heavily regulated labor market?
38:29 PC to AW – And do you agree with that?
39:10 PC to GvO – And Geoffrey you’re obviously an opponent of the EU regulation, is it labor market regulation you don’t like or is it other sorts of regulation you’re concerned about?
40:29 PC to AW – Do you agree with that as a labor economist Alan?
42:35 Audience Q 1 – Is it not a risk to stay, where Europe could implode anyway?
45:07 Audience Q 2 – Are we seeing the death of the poll, or can we trust data? Are we going to see that wide of the mark again or will it be accurate this time?
46:58 Audience Q 3 – We heard quite a bit about the short term potential shocks and short term downsides of a Brexit, I was wondering if you could hypothesise any long term upsides of a Brexit? So any situations where’d we be better?
49:31 Audience Q 4 – How do you see the possibility of further special deals for the UK with the European Union, or would you just need to accept so-to-speak the common decision?
52:43 Audience Q5 – Not much has been said about foreign debt investment and the risk of relocation of multinationals to other European countries, and the statistic around them not being very rich and we don’t have very much, so what’s your position about that?
56:14 PC Q – I’m going to ask you for probabilities […] do you think we’re going to vote leave or remain?
57:48 Audience Q 6 – If people are trying to make their decisions and they’re trying to look to evidence to help them do that, find facts […] where do you advise them to go?

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