Jeff Caers - Bayesian Evidential Learning - A scientific protocol for uncertainty quantification

Описание: This presentation was presented during the 4th Cargèse Summer School on Flow and Transport in Porous and Fractured Media in 2018. Don’t hesitate to have a look on other lectures of the summer school on our channel!

More information on the Summer School on https://cargese2018.sciencesconf.org/

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The future of humanity depends on the successful and sustainable exploitation of critical geological resources such as oil/gas, minerals, heat, storage & fresh water, as well as the transition out of hydro-carbons. Managing such resources will require the integration of a large amount of disciplines such as geological sciences, geophysics, data science, engineering and decision science. Engineering the subsurface is challenging because of the large uncertainties, large costs and hence risks involved. Practical approaches will have to address all uncertainties jointly, deal with large computation times in both data processing and model building, integrate the vast and heterogeneous data sources and manage properly geological heterogeneity. In this lecture, I will outline the challenges of engineering the subsurface, the gaps in our knowledge, the most pressing needs, and, based on those observations, a new data science-based framework that integrates all these disciplines into a manageable decision model. This new framework has been applied to several cases involving oil & gas production, contaminant remediation, heat extraction & subsurface storage. I will present the application to managing groundwater in Denmark. Denmark provides a unique case because of a clear formulation of governmental objectives, the appropriate definition and involvement of the various stakeholders, the collection of high quality data such as Airborne EM data, the specific nature of geological heterogeneity, and the general desire to do it the “right” way: leveraging science and community involvement into a sustainable future water supply. The purpose of this lecture is not to provide the details of each component, but to present the synthesis required to solve problems in practice.

Find the slide presentation on https://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/joris.h...

#Uncertainty #GeologicalResources #Sustainability #DecisionMaking