Gold (XAU/USD): Safehaven flows favour Dollar – will $5k hold?

Описание: Gold took a serious hit yesterday, falling sharply despite the massive geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Why? Because the resulting energy shock is inherently inflationary, and safe-haven flows are currently pouring into the US Dollar instead.

However, XAU/USD has found a critical floor at the $5,000 psychological level, which lines up perfectly with a major Fibonacci retracement. We are tracking a complex technical structure to see whether this is a mini dead-cat bounce, the start of a broader recovery, or a short-to-medium-term decline.

Key topics covered

Inflation trade-off: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a double-edged sword for Gold. The resulting energy shock is driving up inflation expectations (also had a hot US PPI print of 2.9%), which in turn is reducing the probability of Fed rate cuts—boosting the Dollar at Gold's expense.

5k cluster support: Analysing the critical bounce at $5,000, which aligns precisely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the macro drop from the $5,600 record highs.

Elliott Wave & triangle structure: We break down the recent bearish sequence. If the current bounce fails below the 50% retracement ($5,200), we could see a 5-wave impulse down. However, as long as the price holds above the Wave E low at $4,860, the broader bullish ascending triangle remains valid.

Pennant potential: Why a deeper drop toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,680 wouldn't necessarily kill the bull market, but rather point to a symmetrical pennant consolidation.

XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan

Bearish: The recent bounce looks like a mini dead cat bounce. As long as prices remain below the short-term 50% Fibonacci resistance at $5,200, the structure is impulsive to the downside. A break below $5,000 opens up the $4,860 invalidation level, and potentially $4,680. Wait for a lower high to form for a higher-probability short entry.

Bullish: If buyers can push the price back above the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $5,260, it revives the ascending triangle thesis, suggesting the correction ended at $5,000, and the trend is ready to continue higher.

Are you buying the $5k support or waiting for a clearer signal? Share your views in the comments.

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