Mistake #1 Overly-optimistic revenue forecasts | 9 Valuation mistakes

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My name is Andrew Stotz and I've been valuing companies for decades. When I was Head of Research at CLSA, I was voted the No. 1 Analyst in Thailand two years in a row.

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Mistake # 1 Overly-optimistic revenue forecasts

In this video, I am talking about:
• Overly-optimistic revenue forecasts as one of the most common valuation mistakes
• A real story about my boss and his request regarding estimated earnings for the next year
• The meaning of accuracy in income forecast made by financial analysts
• Showing analysts’ tend to be optimistically wrong
• Advise how to improve your investing opportunities
• Remember YAAW “You are always wrong” while building investment plans and looking the best ways of investing money
• How to value any company in the world
• Revenue as the most important item in valuation
• Forecasting based on the results of 500 the largest companies in Asia, pooling together their revenue forecast or their revenue numbers
• How to avoid overestimating revenue growth.
• Providing real examples based on his own coffee business, CoffeeWORKS, and Amazon, Apple, Coke, Nike, BEC, Unilever or Disney, etc.
• How to increase the profit margin and growth margin of our business over time? And other types of questions required for correctly forecast revenue.
• An investor needs to understand the company’s marketing, branding, products and services, selling process, delivery, and after-sales service.

And, most important, curb your optimism in the area of forecasting. Stay optimistic in life.

Want to know more about common valuation mistakes. Follow the links below:

1 Overly-optimistic revenue forecasts
   • Mistake #1 Overly-optimistic revenue forec...  

2 Underestimating expenses causing unrealistic profit
   • Mistake #2 Underestimating expenses causin...  

3 Growing fixed assets slower than revenue
   • Mistake #3 Growing fixed assets slower tha...  

4 Confusing growth with maintenance Capex
   • Mistake #4 Confusing growth with maintenan...  

5 Forecasting drastic changes in cash conversion cycle
   • Mistake #5 Forecasting changes in cash con...  

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