Why the Fed Could Shock Everyone with Rate Moves Nobody Sees Coming

Описание: Why the Fed Could Shock Everyone with Rate Moves Nobody Sees Coming
Something is shifting inside the Federal Reserve that contradicts everything you are being told about interest rates this year. For months, markets priced in just two quarter-point cuts. Now, the probability of three or more cuts has surged to 43 percent, up from 25.6 percent just one month ago. Inflation came in at 2.4 percent in January, below expectations, giving the Fed room it did not have before. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, just said there could be several more rate cuts in 2026 if inflation continues toward target. But here is what nobody is telling you. There is a historical pattern that suggests the exact opposite could happen. Every Fed chair in the past 70 years has seen interest rates rise, not fall, in the final months of their tenure. Jerome Powell's term ends May 15th. He has two meetings left. And the minutes from the January meeting revealed that some Fed officials are actively entertaining the prospect of rate hikes, not cuts. At the same time, Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee to replace Powell, wants to both cut rates and shrink the Fed's balance sheet, a combination that creates unpredictable effects on borrowing costs. In this video, I break down why the probability of three or more cuts just doubled in one month, what the historical pattern of lame-duck Fed chairs tells us about what happens next, why the January inflation data changes the Fed's calculus, how Kevin Warsh's contradictory policy goals could create chaos, why some Fed officials are still discussing rate hikes despite political pressure, and what all of this means for your mortgage, your investments, your savings, and your financial planning for the rest of 2026. The data is pointing in multiple directions. The historical patterns contradict the market expectations. And almost nobody is connecting what happens in the next 90 days to the financial decisions you need to make right now. I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. This is educational content to help you understand the forces shaping your economic future.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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