Seasonal Analysis of Micro-Hydro Energy Potential Using Geographic Information System (GIS)

Описание: OERC Symposium 2025
Speaker: Vania Oktaviani
University of Otago

Authors: Vania Oktaviani, Arjan Abeynaike

More than one million people in Indonesia still lack access to electricity, with the challenge most severe in Papua, where thousands of villages remain unelectrified. Extending the national grid is technically difficult and costly due to the mountainous terrain and sparse population, making off-grid solutions such as micro-hydro power more practical.

This study assesses the theoretical potential of micro-hydro in Papua using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach. River paths were inferred from earth elevation data, and discharge was estimated using global runoff datasets. Village locations were mapped, and an optimisation model was developed to identify the most suitable micro-hydro sites by balancing power output with construction costs, focusing on the ratio between penstock and transmission cable costs. Seasonal variability was also considered through analysis of both wet and dry years and monthly changes.

The results identify 474 potential micro-hydro sites for 817 small villages, with output ranging from less than 100 kW to 50 MW, mostly clustered in the central highlands. The total power output under average conditions is 1.45 GW, indicating significant potential for micro-hydro development in Papua. Seasonal analysis reveals significant variability, with generation during wet months more than four times higher than in dry months. Sensitivity testing emphasises the strong impact of cost assumptions: increasing the penstock-to-cable cost ratio from 5 to 13 reduces feasible sites from 524 to 446 and decreases output from 0.8 GW to 0.6 GW for the lowest runoff value. The findings demonstrate that GIS-based optimisation can effectively guide rural electrification planning in Papua.