Why the Strait of Hormuz Won't Recover Like the Suez Did

Описание: I've been watching the news trying to figure out when gas prices will come back down — and the experts keep saying the same thing: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the oil won't come back quickly. Their evidence is the Suez Canal, which stayed about 60% below normal for months even after the Houthis called off their attacks on shipping in late 2025.

But I don't think the Suez is a good comparison, and the reason is one difference between the two routes. When the Red Sea shut down, ships had an alternative: the longer, costlier trip around the Cape of Good Hope. That alternative is exactly why traffic was slow to return — once carriers rerouted around Africa, there was real inertia keeping them there.

The Strait of Hormuz has no Cape. For most Gulf oil, there's no way around it — when it closes, the flow simply stops. So when this resolves, it may not trickle back slowly the way the Suez did. With no alternative to fall back on, ships may pile back in fast. Same kind of event, very different recovery.

Not a prediction — just a reason the easy comparison probably doesn't hold.

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