The Housing Market Is Breaking Beneath the Surface

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Mortgage rates are flirting with 7%, the 30-year Treasury just printed GFC-era levels, and a Fed governor is publicly floating a rate HIKE. But the real story isn't rates — it's who owns the assets.

In this week's market update I walk through the charts most people aren't looking at: lenders are approving higher debt-to-income ratios than they did in 2007 (record 39.6% vs. 38.7% at the peak of the bubble), pending home sales are scraping the bottom of a 25-year chart, and 52 million U.S. households can't afford a $200,000 home.

Then the part that matters most for Florida: Baby Boomers hold $19.5 trillion in real estate assets — more than Gen X and Millennials combined — and 38% of Florida homeowners are Boomers or older. Five of the top ten metros where retirees hold the most real estate wealth are right here in Florida: North Port, Naples, Cape Coral, Deltona and Port St. Lucie. That's not a coincidence, and it explains why nobody in power can afford to let real estate values fall.

Home ownership is the bedrock of middle-class wealth. So what happens when the next generation is locked out? The top 10% of U.S. households now own 93% of all financial assets and drive more than half of consumer spending. That's the K-shaped economy — asset owners compounding, everyone else falling further behind — and it's why this market "feels" so different depending on which side of it you're standing on.

What we cover:

10-year and 30-year Treasury yields at levels we haven't seen since the financial crisis
Why 6.5% mortgage rates are historically normal (136-year average: 6.4%)
Fed Governor Barr's rate-hike comments and the Treasury's upsized buyback of long-term debt
Record-high DTIs — the distress hiding under the surface
Contract signings, affordability, and falling median NEW home prices
The generational wealth divide and what it means for Florida real estate over the next 6 months

What do YOU see happening in the next 6 months? Drop it in the comments.

Looking for a top agent in Florida or Georgia? Reach out — Momentum Realty, $3.5B in volume and 10,000+ transactions.

Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB, Fannie Mae NMDB, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Realtor.com, USAFacts, WolfStreet, CNBC.

Read my Substack for what I can’t say here: jonbrooks.substack.com

**Disclaimer**: This video reflects my personal opinions based on my experience and research. It should not be taken as financial, legal, or real estate advice. Always do your own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.