IRGC’s military coup in Iran: Russia to remove Khamenei from the country

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The collapse of Iran’s theocratic regime could become one of the most significant geopolitical shocks of the 21st century, fundamentally reshaping the global balance of power and the structure of the world energy market. Protests initially triggered by the sharp devaluation of the national currency and a severe economic crisis have grown into what many observers now describe as a full-scale revolution.

According to Bloomberg, the scale of the current unrest already exceeds that of the 2009 protests and is comparable only to the 1979 overthrow of the Shah. For the Kremlin, the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime would represent a disastrous outcome. Analysts point out that Iran could become the third major ally Russia has lost in a short period of time.

In Venezuela, the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro deprived Moscow of its primary foothold in Latin America. In Syria, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime erased decades of Russian military and political investment. The collapse of Tehran would leave Vladimir Putin without a vital military partner and a key channel for circumventing Western sanctions.

US President Donald Trump, emboldened by regime changes in Caracas and Damascus, has adopted an increasingly hardline stance. Amid an internet blackout and widespread repression inside Iran, the White House has issued threats of direct military strikes. Experts suggest that the Islamic Republic in its current form may not survive until the end of the year. Three main scenarios are being discussed: a military coup led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which could ease some social restrictions while completely suppressing political freedoms; territorial fragmentation, as ethnic minorities and border regions push for autonomy; or total chaos, resembling the Arab Spring, with prolonged civil conflict and a power vacuum.

For Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the situation presents a dilemma. On one hand, the disappearance of Iran as a regional threat would be advantageous. On the other, Gulf monarchies fear uncontrolled instability near their borders and may prefer the predictability of the existing regime. For Russia, however, any of these outcomes would likely mean the final loss of its influence in the Middle East.

Since the start of mass protests threatening the rule of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Russian military transport aircraft have reportedly begun frequent flights to Tehran. Il-76TD planes, reportedly operating under civilian cover, have been flying regularly from Mineralnye Vody to the Iranian capital, routing over the Caucasus and avoiding NATO-controlled airspace.

Sources say the repeated use of the same aircraft and the emphasis on speed rather than cost efficiency point to a focused, deliberate operation. Analysts note that conducting multiple flights instead of a single consolidated cargo movement aligns with military logistics doctrine.

Experts speculate that Russia may be providing military and technical assistance to its strategic partner, while also possibly preparing evacuation plans for Iran’s supreme leader and his inner circle. Some suggest the aircraft could even be transporting the ayatollah’s gold reserves. A similar approach was reportedly used by Moscow more than a year ago to help Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad flee the country.
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