The AI Rally Is Not a Bubble: What Central Banks Are Missing

Описание: Are AI stocks in a bubble - or is the market rationally repricing the economy productive capacity? This narrated deep dive examines the PSY bubble-detection framework and why standard tests can confuse a general-purpose technology shock with speculative excess.

We compare the 1995-2000 Dot-Com era with the 2020-2025 AI rally, then walk through a technology-adjusted diagnostic built on total factor productivity, real IT investment, and lagged patent grants. The adjusted test removes the false 1996 signal, retains the late-1999/2000 bubble, and finds zero aggregate residual explosiveness in the AI rally - while firm-level results remain more nuanced, including a residual signal for Tesla.

Key topics: AI bubble, Dot-Com bubble, PSY test, technology fundamentals, TFP, IT investment, patent grants, Magnificent Seven, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, central banks, market surveillance.