From tariffs to interest rates: what could move equipment sales in 2026

Описание: Farm equipment sales are showing the effects of a softer farm economy, but there are signs that 2026 could offer a more stable outlook.

At Commodity Classic in San Antonio, RealAgriculture’s Bernard Tobin caught up with Curt Blades, senior vice president of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), to discuss the factors shaping the equipment market heading into 2026.

Blades noted that 2025 was a challenging year across the board. “The farm economy experienced a lot of softness, and that’s reflected in the numbers,” he says. Sales declined across most segments — from high-horsepower tractors to combines — placing 2025 near the bottom of the 20-year sales range tracked by AEM.

While January combine sales in Canada showed a sharp percentage increase, Blades cautioned that the gain came off a very low base. Combines remain a considered purchase, he says, requiring confidence in the farm operation before committing to a significant capital investment.

Looking ahead, crop prices and financing are top factor influencing 2026 equipment sales. With new combines approaching seven-figure price tags, most purchases rely on credit. “Interest rates do matter,” says Blades, noting that tighter margins and higher borrowing costs affect both equipment loans and operating lines. As a result, anecdotal reports from the show floor suggest stronger interest in equipment priced under $150,000 and aftermarket precision ag upgrades that extend the life of existing machines.

Inventory levels are also shifting. Dealer lots, particularly in high-horsepower segments, are carrying more equipment than during the pandemic years, when supply chains left inventories depleted, says Blades. At the same time, the overall fleet age remains relatively young, which may temper near-term replacement demand.

Blades says several broader factors could influence equipment costs and sales momentum in 2026. Tariff relief on steel and components, stable interest rates, permanent R&D tax credits and greater regulatory certainty — particularly around emissions — would all help reduce cost pressures.

“What agriculture needs — what the market needs — is certainty,” he says. Movement on trade, biofuels policy and a potential farm bill could provide optimism for a stronger year ahead.
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