Viral TikTok Claims This ORB Strategy Made Him a Millionaire (Backtest Says Otherwise)

Описание: https://www.quantcrawler.com

Saw a viral TikTok (800K views) saying "don't use Aaron's 9:30-9:45 ORB, use my 4am-8am London session ORB instead - better win rates." People going crazy in comments. So I backtested it. Results: my strategy makes money, his loses money.

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THE CHALLENGE:

Guy posts video claiming his 4am-8am London session ORB strategy is better than my 9:30-9:45 New York session ORB. Says it made him a millionaire. 800K+ views, 1,500+ comments, people can't wait to try it.

I'm transparent and not a hater, but if people follow this blindly, they'll get smoked. So I backtested both strategies apples-to-apples.

MY STRATEGY (9:30-9:45 ORB):

Step 1: Mark 9:30-9:45 candle on 15-minute chart (top wick to bottom wick)
Step 2: Drop to 5-minute, wait for candle body to close outside zone
Step 3: Enter in breakout direction

Settings: Session ends 11 AM ET, opposite side stop loss, 2.5 TP, Mon-Fri, 3 contracts MNQ

I update weekly (every Saturday) because markets change constantly. Not set-and-forget.

I don't automate this - trade it manually with my own eyes and brain.

HIS STRATEGY (4am-8am London Session):

Mark 4am-8am range (4-HOUR opening range)
Same entry: 5-minute candle body close outside zone
Same settings otherwise

BACKTEST RESULTS - MNQ (3 contracts):

My 9:30-9:45 Strategy:
90 days: $15,998 profit, $3,552 drawdown, 55.6% win rate, 1.6 PF
30 days: $9,170 profit, $1,321 drawdown, 68% win rate, 5.171 PF
7 days: $2,676 profit, $753 drawdown, 66.7% win rate, 9.774 PF

His 4am-8am Strategy:
90 days: $3,244 profit, $7,064 drawdown, 41.94% win rate, 1.16 PF
30 days: $60 profit, $7,064 drawdown, 42.86% win rate, 1.007 PF
7 days: -$1,684 LOSS, $1,711 drawdown, 33% win rate, 0.455 PF

BACKTEST RESULTS - MES (5 contracts):

My 9:30-9:45 Strategy:
90 days: $6,104 profit, $3,576 drawdown, 56.7% win rate, 1.308 PF
30 days: $5,759 profit, $1,108 drawdown, 71.43% win rate, 4.83 PF
7 days: $1,193 profit, $493 drawdown, 60% win rate, 3.929 PF

His 4am-8am Strategy:
90 days: -$1,000 LOSS, $7,541 drawdown, 45.9% win rate, 0.939 PF
30 days: -$2,403 LOSS, $7,541 drawdown, 42.86% win rate, 0.727 PF
7 days: -$1,300 LOSS, $1,600 drawdown, 33% win rate, 0.419 PF

NOT EVEN CLOSE.

REAL-WORLD PROOF (Today - March 3):

Trade Sinker screenshot: 26+ funded accounts, $26,764 total profit this morning using MY 9:30-9:45 strategy. 90% funded accounts working toward payouts.

His strategy? Last 7 days shows consistent losses on both MNQ and MES.

THE PROBLEM:

800K people saw that viral video. Comments full of "can't wait to try this!" and "amazing results!" If they actually backtest it before trading real money, they'll see it LOSES money.

No way this strategy alone made anyone a millionaire. The math doesn't work.

WHY I'M SHOWING THIS:

I'm transparent. When someone throws shade my way and claims their strategy is better, I'll test it publicly. Not being a hater - just protecting people from following viral claims without verification.

Always backtest before trading real money. Don't trust view counts - trust data.

Markets change weekly. I update my strategies every Saturday reviewing 7-day and 30-day performance. What worked last month might not work this month.

Disclaimer: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always backtest strategies yourself before trading. These are historical results, not promises.

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