45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuels Market: Big Shifts for Soy Oil, CI Scores & UCO Imports
Автор: StoneX
Загружено: 2026-02-03
Просмотров: 2936
Описание:
StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs.
What’s inside:
45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029)
North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters)
Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025
ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CI
Credit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed)
Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operations
Market implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supported
Next shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review)
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#StoneX #Biofuels #45Z #Soybeans #Biodiesel #RenewableDiesel #CarbonIntensity #GREET #EPA #RVO #UsedCookingOil #ILUC
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