Conditional Probabilities (SOA Exam P – Probability – General Probability Module)

Описание: Master conditional probability for SOA Exam P using simple Venn-diagram logic. In this lesson we work only in words and pictures (no formulas) to answer questions like “What’s the chance a farmer grew beans given they’re from Alabama?” You’ll see how to read the condition, restrict the sample, and count the right regions of the diagram. We finish with a mixed “given A or B” example you’re likely to see on Exam P.

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After completing this video you should be able to:

Define and calculate conditional probabilities.

Examples given in the video:

A survey of 2000 farmers in the southeast U.S. last year revealed the following information:
351 were from the state of Alabama
1205 grew beans
1110 grew cotton
234 were from Alabama and grew beans
221 were from Alabama and grew cotton
663 grew both beans and cotton
143 were from Alabama and grew both beans and cotton

1. A surveyed farmer from Alabama is selected. Determine the probability that this farmer grew beans.

2. Determine the probability that a surveyed farmer grew beans or cotton, given the farmer is from Alabama.

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