MENA | Could disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz derail GCC economic growth?

Описание: Only one oil tanker has successfully travelled west to east through the strait in the past week, forcing some GCC producers to signal production cuts as storage fills up and infrastructure risks rise.

In our latest report, Impact of the Iran war on GCC economies, we cut our 2026 GCC GDP growth forecast by 1.8pp to 2.6%, reflecting weaker oil exports, tourism, and domestic demand.

Oil markets remain volatile. Brent briefly spiked to $115 before dropping below $90. We expect prices to average $80 in Q2, before falling below $60 by early next year, though uncertainty remains high.

🎙️ With Adam Holdstock
📊 Read the report: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resou...

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