US think tank's AI Taiwan war game over 1000 times fatal defeat
Автор: ViviMic
Загружено: 2026-01-25
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Hello everyone. A US think tank's AI war game simulation exposes fatal flaws, hinting at the outcome of the Taiwan Strait conflict.
The US's obsession with "Taiwan independence" has never faded. Recently, the Heritage Foundation released an AI war game report, with alarming conclusions pointing to the fatal predicament of US intervention in the Taiwan Strait. Unlike traditional manual simulations with only about twenty scenarios, this report, relying on AI to complete thousands of scenario iterations, concluded that the US military was destined for defeat, and a crushing one at that. The simulation assumed that China would only deploy its Eastern Theater Command, with the US coordinating with Japan and South Korea for defense. Even so, the old conclusion that the US military would only achieve a Pyrrhic victory was completely invalidated.
The AI's efficient simulation precisely demonstrates the gap in military potential between China and the US, which explains the US's deep concern about China's AI development. Ironically, the report's conclusions have chilled the hearts of China hawks, with the Trump administration hastily deleting parts of the content, obscuring key information with black blocks in an attempt to cover up the US military's weaknesses. This altered report still bluntly states that in a high-intensity conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the US military would reach a point of collapse within weeks, its sustained combat capability far inferior to China's, and the Western Pacific would suffer devastating losses.
The US military's decline has long been foreshadowed. Aid to Ukraine and Israel has depleted a large amount of its military equipment, while its own military industrial capacity is extremely weak. Even increasing the defense budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion cannot mask the predicament of "having money but not being able to produce, and not being able to replenish supplies when needed." War games clearly show that US forward bases are highly concentrated in Japan, South Korea, and Guam. In the early stages of a conflict, 90% of US aircraft could be destroyed on the ground by Chinese missiles; key precision-guided munitions would run out within 7 days and be exhausted within 35 to 40 days; although there is a surplus of fuel, it cannot be delivered to the front lines due to attacks on supply lines.
In contrast, China can not only sustain high-intensity combat for several months, but its critical ammunition depletion inflection point is 20 to 30 days later than the US military's. Furthermore, it can extend the combat cycle through alternative solutions, completely overwhelming the US's sustained combat capability. The report was forced to admit that the vulnerability of the US military's equipment, troop deployment, and logistical system would lead to a structural defeat in an Indo-Pacific conflict, and even render it unable to cope with a second large-scale global conflict.
Such simulations are not isolated cases. A classified Pentagon report last year revealed similar conclusions: China, leveraging its advantage in weapons mass production, undermined the US military's suppressive power, with advanced equipment such as the Ford-class aircraft carrier and fifth-generation fighter jets suffering heavy losses in simulations. Meanwhile, the US, while exaggerating the "China threat," is simultaneously increasing arms sales to Taiwan by $11 billion, revealing its divisive ambitions.
This report effectively tears away the US's fig leaf: it loses its suppressive power in the event of war, and has no chance of winning a protracted conflict. Okay, that's all for this analysis. Please like and share. See you next time !
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