45 Ray Dalio “Challenging Times by 2029” —

Описание: Dalio's concern for the next three years (2026–2029) is rooted in the Long-Term Debt Cycle. He notes that when the cost of servicing debt exceeds the growth of income, a "beautiful deleveraging" is required, or a chaotic one will occur.

The Debt Wall: Trillions in low-interest debt are being refinanced at 2026’s higher rates, sucking liquidity out of the system.

Currency Debasement: As governments print money to fund deficits, the "real" value of cash and bonds drops, even if their "nominal" value stays flat.

2. The Simple Risk Plan: Stocks, Cash, and Real Assets
Instead of trying to "time" the 2029 crash, Dalio suggests balancing your portfolio based on four economic "seasons":

Stocks (The Growth Engine)
The Risk: Stocks are highly sensitive to "Falling Growth." In a deleveraging, even good companies can see their prices slashed as liquidity dries up.

The Strategy: Dalio suggests capping equity exposure (often around 30%) and focusing on Quality and Dividends. Avoid "bubble" sectors like over-leveraged AI firms or speculative tech that doesn't produce cash flow.

Cash (The "Trash" Trap)
The Risk: While cash provides safety during a stock crash, Dalio famously calls it "trash" because it loses 5–8% of its purchasing power annually in high-inflation environments.

The Strategy: Use cash only for liquidity and short-term "dry powder." In your long-term 2029 plan, cash should be a minor holding, replaced by short-term inflation-protected securities (TIPS).

Real Assets (The Wealth Shield)
The Risk: Financial assets (stocks/bonds) often fail simultaneously during a currency crisis.

The Strategy: Dalio allocates heavily (up to 15-20%) to real assets that hold intrinsic value:

Gold: The "neutral" currency that carries no default risk.

Commodities: Protection against rising prices and supply chain shocks.

Real Estate (Income-Producing): Focus on assets with positive cash flow that can adjust rents with inflation.