Quantitative Project Risk Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel

Описание: Welcome to the course “Quantitative Project Risk Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel”. I am Fernando Hernandez. I have worked for more than 15 years as an official trainer and consultant for Palisade Company, the maker of @RISK. @RISK is perhaps, the most popular add-in for Monte Carlo simulation on top of Microsoft Excel. @RISK shows you virtually all possible outcomes for any situation, and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take on and which ones to avoid: a critical insight in today’s uncertain world.
Project specialists and managers, and particularly project risk managers may greatly benefit from this course. It is intended to jump beyond traditional project risk analysis using risk registers and matrices, by using powerful techniques of simulation that allows the actual quantification of risk. Students who also want to be introduced to @RISK as a general simulation methodology will benefit from this course.
This course starts by explaining traditional qualitative risk registers and risk matrices. We explain why this methodology of listing risks for a project or company is full of weaknesses and flaws, in its attempt to use frequency and severity components to build a risk analysis. By comparison, we will carefully build a case for quantitative risk analysis for a project, using an @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation approach. Along the many lessons, we carefully add all the components on how to build a robust risk register, able to build probabilistic contingencies on a project. We add proper distributions for dealing with frequency and severity, simulation techniques, correlation, scenario analysis, and optimization of mitigation strategies. At the end, we compare qualitative and quantitative risk analysis powered by simulation.