Is a 7% Withdrawal Rate Too Risky? Real Retirement Case Study

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Tom and Marcia are 62 and 60 years old, have saved $2 million for retirement, and are ready to escape cold Michigan winters. But the big question is: Have they saved enough to retire comfortably?

In this retirement case study, I analyze their retirement plan, social security strategy, withdrawal rates, and long-term sustainability using historical market simulations. I’ll walk through their ideal $12,000/month retirement budget, portfolio withdrawal risks, and what their projected legacy could look like after 35 years.

You’ll also learn why delaying Social Security can increase lifetime income, how a 7% withdrawal rate compares to the classic 4% rule, and whether this plan is too conservative—or leaving money on the table.

📌 Topics covered:
Retirement income planning
Social Security claiming strategy
Withdrawal rate risk
Monte Carlo retirement simulations
Legacy projections
How much can you safely spend in retirement

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00:00 – Introduction: Tom & Marcia’s Retirement Scenario
00:45 – Overview of $2M Savings and Account Breakdown
01:09 – Social Security Benefits and Pension Overview
01:47 – $12,000/Month Retirement Spending Goal
02:29 – Retirement Cashflow Sources Explained
03:52 – Social Security Claiming Strategy (65 vs 70)
05:31 – Healthcare and ACA Planning Considerations
05:54 – Monte Carlo Risk Analysis Explained
07:02 – Retirement Success Probability Results (97%)
08:20 – Projected Legacy: $7.8M After 35 Years
09:41 – Are They Being Too Conservative?
10:09 – Withdrawal Rate Concerns (7% vs 4% Rule)
11:00 – Historical Withdrawal Rate Research
11:30+ – Portfolio Allocation & Sustainable Spending Discussion

Retirement Advice, headquartered in Mapleton, Utah, is a fee-only financial planning firm that equips individuals with the knowledge, tools, and wisdom needed to retire on their terms confidently. Their holistic approach is rooted in transparency, open collaboration, and a client-first mindset. They can be reached by phone at (801) 228-0103, via email at [email protected], or on the web at earlyretirementadvice.com.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

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