Where valuation resets are creating opportunity on the ASX

Описание: Please note, this interview was recorded Monday, 2 February 2026

Whilst factors such as growth and momentum have dominated markets in recent years, anyone paying attention will have observed that things are starting to change.

There is a rotation happening literally as you read this, with hot money flowing out of tech and certain commodities. But it’s more than that. The market is waking up to the idea that what has worked in the past won’t work ad infinitum.

To put it more succinctly;

“Value is already starting to emerge,” says Dougal Maple-Brown, Head of Australian Value Equities at Maple-Brown Abbott

After a powerful rally through late 2025, Australian equities entered 2026 trading near 20-year valuation highs. While headline multiples have come off modestly, Maple-Brown argues the more important development is what is happening beneath the surface. Several of the market’s most popular stocks are already being de-rated, narrowing the valuation gap between expensive and unloved names and reopening the opportunity set for patient, valuation-driven investors.

As he explains, this shift is measurable and already underway:

“We monitor PE spreads between the rich and the poor. Those spreads have been coming in. You can see stocks like CBA, which peaked at 30 times middle of last year, are now down at 24 or 25. So the de-rating is definitely underway.”

For Maple-Brown, this matters because valuation cycles rarely stop neatly at fair value. Markets that unwind from extremes often overshoot, creating opportunities for investors who remain disciplined as sentiment adjusts to fundamentals.

In our conversation, he explains why Australian equities still look expensive in aggregate, why value has further to run over the next 12 months, and where opportunities are already emerging after years of valuation discipline being tested. Just as importantly, he is clear on where value still does not exist, despite recent pullbacks, and why paying too much for perceived safety remains one of the biggest risks investors face today.

TIME CODES

00:03 – Introduction: Valuations, volatility, and why markets are de-rating
00:42 – The de-rating of market darlings: PE spreads compressing
01:40 – The outlook for value: Why the market still looks expensive
03:52 – How the base case could be wrong: US growth, Trump, and rates
05:11 – Portfolio positioning: Defensive setup and sector tilts
06:52 – Gold and silver: Why sell-offs still don’t equal value
07:35 – When quality gets mispriced: CSL and Woolworths
09:22 – Capital discipline and value traps: Leverage risks
11:29 – Where alpha came from: ANZ and Amcor
14:14 – A stock sold: Why Brambles no longer stacked up