The Recovery Is Real Just Not for You

Описание: The recovery is real.
That much is true.

Activity is lifting. Confidence is improving. Some sectors are moving again. And that’s exactly when most people assume the danger has passed.

It hasn’t.

In this episode of FUND IT, host Craig Stanaway sits down with Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold to unpack a reality that rarely makes the headlines:

Recoveries are uneven. They reward position, not patience.

From the outside, the game looks like it’s turning.
From the middle, it can still feel like survival.

This conversation isn’t about denying the recovery. It’s about understanding who it’s actually reaching first, who is still waiting, and why the early stages of improvement often widen gaps before they close them.

Craig challenges the assumption that stabilising conditions equal safety, asking the questions most people only think to ask after they’ve already relaxed:

• Who benefits first when a recovery begins
• Why business confidence lifts before jobs follow
• How labour markets lag activity by quarters, not weeks
• Why stability can mask household risk
• What economists mean when they say “slack remains”
• When a recovery becomes real rather than selective
• Why most mistakes are made after relief, not during crisis

Kelly Eckhold explains how recoveries typically unfold in New Zealand, why unemployment is the key signal that hasn’t turned yet, and why inflation easing doesn’t automatically restore household margins. He also outlines why forecasts remain cautious despite improving data, and how policy decisions are shaped by lag, not optimism.

The core message is simple but uncomfortable:

Headlines improve before households do.
Position decides who benefits.
Waiting is still a position.

If you feel like the story you’re hearing doesn’t quite match what you’re experiencing, you’re not imagining it. Most people don’t get caught out because the economy collapses. They get caught out because it improves just enough for them to lower their guard.

The recovery may have started.
It just might not be your turn yet.

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