“Nuclear Doctrine Is Not the Holy Bible”. Strategic Stability in 2026 | Dmitry Stefanovich, Sofia...

Описание: Is nuclear deterrence still working in a multipolar world? Why is the gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict growing? What do recent strikes on nuclear facilities mean for global non-proliferation norms? And what can we expect from the NPT regime ahead of the 2026 Review Conference?

In this episode of “Foreign Policy,” podcast Editor-in-Chief Sofia Babkina speaks with Dmitry Stefanovich (IMEMO RAS) about the changing logic of nuclear deterrence in a multipolar world.

The discussion explores the widening gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict, the implications of recent strikes on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, as well as the future prospects of the NPT regime and the upcoming 2026 RevCon.

Guest: Mr. Dmitry Stefanovich, Research Fellow, IMEMO RAS; Author, “STRATDELA”substack (https://1dkv.substack.com/)

Host: Ms. Sofia Babkina, Research Fellow, MGIMO Institute for International Studies

Time Stamps:

00:06 Intro
02:28 Is Nuclear Deterrence Still Working?
03:42 Multipolarity and Strategic (In)stability
04:36 Russia, the United States and China: Different Nuclear Logics
06:58 The Role of Allies in Nuclear Strategy
08:51 Strikes on Nuclear Facilities: A Dangerous Precedent
09:34 Will More Countries Seek Nuclear Weapons?
10:36 Hypersonic Weapons: Ambiguity, Compressed Decision Time and Miscalculation
12:57 Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Limited War
13:56 Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Power and Missile Defense
15:21 Space as a Domain of Strategic Competition
16:29 Commercial Satellites and Modern Warfare
17:02 The Future of the NPT Regime
18:06 NPT RevCon 2026: Can the Treaty Survive?
19:25 Q&A
19:33 (Mis)perception of Technology That Changed Escalation More Than Expected
20:15 Which Region Is Most Dangerous Today?
20:52 Underrated Stabilizing Mechanisms
21:23 Which Cold War Observations No Longer Apply?
22:13 Three Strategic Developments to Watch in 2026

This is the second English-language episode of the “Foreign Policy” podcast. You can listen to the first episode with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi by following the link (https://vp.mave.digital/ep-61) .

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