20250414中金研究｜宏观策略周论：是“抄底”的好时机吗？CICC Research | Weekly Macro Strategy: The Right Time to Bottom Fish?

Описание: 本期《宏观策略周论》来自中金公司2025年4月21日的线上策略会，由海外与港股策略首席分析师刘刚与宏观经济分析师黄文静主讲。
This episode of “Weekly Macro Strategy” features the April 21, 2025 online strategy meeting hosted by CICC, led by Liu Gang (Chief Strategist for Overseas and HK Markets) and macroeconomist Huang Wenjing.

本次会议以“是否为抄底好时机”为主题，讨论了关税谈判、市场情绪变化、流动性环境及政策走向对全球主要资产（美股、A股、港股）的影响。,
The discussion centers on whether this is a good time to bottom fish, covering topics such as tariff negotiations, shifting market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and policy direction across major global assets like U.S., A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks.

观点指出，当前市场情绪已充分释放，关税博弈进入新阶段；美联储可能释放流动性，流动性冲击往往成为抄底信号。,
The speakers note that market sentiment has largely priced in recent risks, the tariff negotiation is entering its second phase, and potential liquidity support from the Fed could offer bottom-fishing signals.

关税豁免将影响美股盈利与通胀，美债利率若冲高至5%则可阶段性做多；而黄金作为替代资产建议采用定投策略。,
Tariff exemptions may impact U.S. earnings and inflation. U.S. bond yields rising to 5% could present a tactical long opportunity, while gold is recommended as an alternative asset through regular investment.

中概股仍存分化风险，大型公司风险可控，小型公司压力大；中国具备谈判优势，内需政策工具可控，财政扩张空间较足。,
Risks for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks remain uneven—manageable for large caps, significant for small caps. China holds negotiation advantages with policy autonomy on domestic demand and room for fiscal expansion.


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