1 Minute Ago: Deficits Deterrence & $5 Gas Is the U S Heading Into Economic Turbulence| George Will

Описание: On February 20, U.S. markets were forced to process a rare convergence of economic and geopolitical pressure: a Supreme Court tariff ruling, slowing fourth-quarter 2025 growth data, rising Treasury yields, and escalating tensions with Iran.

Investors are increasingly concerned that losing tariff revenue could deepen America’s already substantial budget deficit. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, and Goldman Sachs estimates tariffs contributed roughly half a percentage point to the late-2025 inflation surge. If oil spikes toward $100 per barrel and gasoline approaches $5 per gallon amid Middle East tensions, the Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma becomes significantly more complex.

According to the Budget Lab at Yale, even after overturned tariffs are removed, Americans still face a 9.1% average effective tariff rate — the highest in 80 years outside of 2025. The average household is absorbing approximately $800 in short-term costs. Manufacturing is expanding, but construction and agriculture are contracting, highlighting uneven economic strain across sectors.

At the same time, Iran is signaling deterrence. Professor Vali Nasr describes Tehran’s strategy as convincing Washington that war would be costly. Mines, drones, anti-ship missiles, fast attack boats, and regional proxy networks raise the risk of disruption to global oil flows and Gulf shipping lanes.

President Trump has stated he will decide within 10 days whether to authorize military action. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28. The USS Gerald Ford is deploying to join the Abraham Lincoln carrier group, with full forces expected by mid-March. A written Iranian proposal following Geneva talks is also pending.

Financial markets are watching carefully. The next 10 days could shape inflation, energy prices, and the broader economic trajectory.

Disclaimer

This video is for informational and analytical purposes only. It is based on publicly available data and expert commentary at the time of recording. It does not constitute financial, legal, or military advice. Economic and geopolitical conditions are fluid and subject to change.


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