Consumer Choice Models with PyMC Marketing

Описание: 🔊 Recorded at PyData Berlin 2025,
https://2025.pycon.de/program/GW9EXL/

🎓 Learn how Bayesian consumer choice models can predict market behavior and simulate product strategies before costly real-world implementation.

Speakers:
Nathaniel Forde

Description:
Nathaniel Forde introduces PyMC Marketing's new consumer choice module, demonstrating how Bayesian discrete choice models can help businesses understand market dynamics and predict consumer behavior. The talk explores the limitations of traditional multinomial logit models, particularly the "independence of irrelevant alternatives" problem that leads to implausible market predictions. Forde shows how nested logit models solve this by encoding market structure, allowing for realistic counterfactual simulations. Using a heating systems dataset, he demonstrates how these models reveal which product attributes drive consumer utility and enable businesses to safely simulate product interventions and strategy changes. The presentation includes practical examples of causal inference using PyMC Marketing's intuitive API, showing how companies can test pricing strategies and feature additions before implementation.

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Since 2014, PyData Berlin has brought together the international Python and data community.
With monthly meetups and a yearly conference, it connects data engineers, scientists, and tool-builders to share ideas, explore open-source technologies, and drive innovation together.

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Acknowledgements:
Special thanks to all the volunteers and sponsors who made this event possible.

About:
NumFOCUS Inc.
supports open-source scientific computing by providing financial and logistical support to key projects like NumPy and Jupyter, promoting sustainable development and collaboration.

Pioneers Hub gemeinnützige GmbH:
is a non-profit fostering innovation in AI and tech by connecting experts and promoting knowledge exchange through events and collaborative initiatives.
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PyData is an educational program of NumFOCUS, a 501(c)3 non-profit organization in the United States. PyData provides a forum for the international community of users and developers of data analysis tools to share ideas and learn from each other. The global PyData network promotes discussion of best practices, new approaches, and emerging technologies for data management, processing, analytics, and visualization. PyData communities approach data science using many languages, including (but not limited to) Python, Julia, and R.