Alina Polyakova — Ukraine and the Future of US Global Leadership

Описание: Alina Polyakova assesses how Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine has become a global test of U.S. leadership, presenting a “Goldilocks” framework: extraordinary success (“America is back”), exposed fragility, or a calibrated “just‑right” course. Evidence for success includes transatlantic unity, unprecedented defense transfers (Patriot, F‑16s, Leopard tanks), NATO’s revitalization, and the strategic “discount” of degrading a major U.S. adversary while deterring broader conflict and signaling resolve to China. The fragility case points to Russia’s endurance, resilient domestic support, uneven Global South alignment, sanctions workarounds, allied divisions, and a tightened Russia–China axis. The middle path—avoiding direct NATO–Russia war and nuclear escalation—may also lock the West into a long war born of incrementalism. Lessons: the United States remains indispensable in Europe; leadership requires simultaneously anchoring European security and competing with China; and emerging leadership in Europe’s north and east must mature. Polyakova also reflects on missed deterrence opportunities since 2013–14 and the imperative to lead allies rather than merely consult them.

Alina Polyakova is President & CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a recognized expert on transatlantic security, Russia/Ukraine, and democracy/technology policy. She also holds an affiliation with Johns Hopkins SAIS’s Kissinger Center.

Key Topics
00:00 Framing the invasion as an inflection point for U.S. global leadership and the “return of history.”
02:36 “America is back”: allied unity, major arms transfers, NATO revival, Ukraine’s resilience.
05:02 The “fragility” thesis: Russian public opinion, sanctions leakage, and Russia–China alignment.
07:54 The “just‑right” argument: avoiding NATO–Russia war and nuclear escalation but risking a long war.
12:50 Lessons on leadership: U.S. indispensability, doing Europe and China at once, and Zelenskyy’s example.

The published anthology:
https://bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/book...

The essay in audio:
https://engelsbergideas.com/podcast/e...

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