RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

Описание: RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflation, deGraaf explains why the latter contracting is historically a quantifiable tailwind for equities and Pavlick examines China tensions from Panama to Taiwan and the continued political risks surrounding tariffs, defense spending, and Fed leadership.

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Timestamps
00:00 Welcome, Disclaimer, & Intro
01:08 Holiday timing, panel roll call & Pavlik’s 2am “Santa or intruder?” story
02:34 CPI + jobs recap: shutdown data quirks, unemployment drift & why Occam’s razor says “cut”
05:35 Affordability, used-car and cereal discounts & what falling prices really signal for demand
07:22 Can we trust the data? Shutdown distortions, labor breadth, rents & unemployment inertia
10:29 Energy, housing, labor trifecta & Neil’s “vultures circling” view of the next Fed cuts
12:09 CPI as an equity tailwind: Z-scores, percentiles & why lower inflation beats strong growth
14:46 DeGraaf Thrust 101: breadth, non-momentum trend regime & restaurants as a microcosm
17:10 Yields, curves & credit: 2-year vs 10-year, spreads & why the bond market doesn’t scare Jeff
18:24 RenMac newsletter plug: charts, Friday drops & how to go deeper than the pod
18:54 Long-end rates, term premiums, global deficits & Neil’s carpenter-and-nail analogy
21:54 Dalio, deficits & “unsustainable” paths: currencies, gold & what a slow-motion fiscal mess looks like
25:41 China, Panama, Taiwan arms sale & shifting defense and House-election dynamics
29:45 Wiles, Vanity Fair, 4D chess theories & the Fed Chair shortlist (Besant, Waller, Reider)
32:00 Mailbag: how weaker data could accelerate cuts & the risk of “slowly, then all at once”
35:00 Diverging central banks, FX as the great equalizer & why rate differentials dominate currencies
38:47 RenMac Edge Miami: sold-out forum, guest lineup & live Off-Script taping preview
40:26 Next week in D.C. & defense: crypto legislation, EO risk for primes & “disruptive defense” winners
42:47 Next week in macro: Q3 GDP vs labor, consumer confidence & BOJ’s tense hike and soaring JGBs
44:46 Year-end market setup: option wings, Santa-rally odds & big breakouts in metals and miners
48:45 Closing Remarks