Volatile winter, delayed spring: What the El Niño transition could mean for Prairie moisture

Описание: Weather volatility is already setting the tone for 2026, and according to Makens Weather’s Matt Makens, how spring unfolds could make or break moisture prospects across Western Canada and large parts of the U.S.

Speaking with RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney at CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, Makens laid out a forecast marked by sharp regional contrasts, lingering winter patterns, and a critical transition away from La Niña toward El Niño. While eastern North America is dealing with repeated cold pushes, snow, and ice, the western third of the continent is experiencing what Makens describes as “one winter which isn’t a winter.”

Snowpack levels are the clearest red flag. Colorado is sitting at its lowest snowpack on record for mid-February, with parts of the Rockies and Western Canada also trending well below average. Warm Chinooks and displaced storm tracks have eroded what little snow did fall, raising concerns about streamflow and summer water supplies.

For Canadian Prairie producers, Makens says the key message is patience. “In a way, you kind of want winter to be delayed,” he explained, warning that a rapid shift to spring could pull drought north by early summer. “If you call me in June and you say it’s super hot here and we just got dry, that means it moved in too quick.”

The same slow-moving drought risk applies across the western U.S., gradually migrating north from Texas and the southern Plains into the northern tier as spring and summer progress. Meanwhile, eastern Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region are likely facing a delayed spring start, with snowpack and ice keeping temperatures cooler well into March and April.

Makens cautions against overgeneralizing El Nino impacts. “You really gotta focus on your region, not the big message that El Nino’s wetter — because for some folks, it’s not.” For Western Canada, that means quietly cheering for a late, lingering spring to keep moisture in play through June and July.


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